New Delhi, February 6: The West Bengal Congress leadership has not responded to repeated unity efforts from the state leadership of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) ahead of the upcoming assembly elections. This lack of response suggests a likely division between the two parties.
It has also become evident that the opposition coalition, presented with much fanfare less than three years ago as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) block, is unlikely to succeed in West Bengal.
The state is now expected to witness direct competition among multiple parties, potentially benefiting the main opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The influence of Muslim voters could be significant in 80 to 90 assembly seats, with 40 to 50 seats where they play a decisive role.
This demographic situation greatly impacts state Politics, with various political parties attempting to leverage it. Historically, Muslim voters have leaned towards the ruling Trinamool Congress, which has launched several welfare schemes for this community under Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
However, Banerjee’s recent shift towards “soft Hindutva” may fragment minority votes. The inauguration of large, state-funded temples and generous support for Durga Puja organizers are seen as attempts to distance the majority community from the BJP.
In the upcoming assembly elections, several political parties are expected to enter the fray, openly showcasing their political strength based on religion. Former Trinamool Congress MLA Humayun Kabir has launched the Janata Unnayan Party (JUP) and is in the spotlight for plans to create a replica of the Babri Masjid. His aim is to play a kingmaker role after the election results.
While Banerjee’s recent actions may distance her from her traditional voter base, a united Muslim vote behind Kabir could facilitate post-election alliances if needed.
The Indian Secular Front (ISF) is also reactivating. Founded by Maulana Pirzada Abbas Siddiqui of the Furfura Sharif Sufi Dargah before the 2021 assembly elections, the party claims it will fight for “social justice” for Muslims and Dalits in the state.
Meanwhile, Asaduddin Owaisi, head of the Hyderabad-based AIMIM, is preparing to test the political waters in West Bengal after last year’s success in Muslim-majority areas of Bihar.
Kabir is emphasizing a potential alliance of Islamic parties to strengthen his bargaining power post-election. The opposition’s rift became more apparent with the appointment of Shubhankar Sarkar as the new state Congress president, replacing Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury.
Chowdhury, previously seen as a staunch opponent of Banerjee, is now viewed as a relatively softer leader. This shift prompted Congress to finally break its alliance with the Left Front and ISF, as many within the party believed this coalition had weakened Congress.
In previous elections, this alliance did not yield significant benefits for Congress. When discussions with the Trinamool Congress occurred later, they only offered limited seat-sharing agreements. Recent political events and signals have made it clear that a division is imminent. Consequently, Congress has decided to contest all 294 assembly seats independently. Notably, CPI(M) state secretary Mohammad Salim’s recent meeting with Kabir has also drawn attention.
Chowdhury has been a five-time MP from the Baharampur Lok Sabha constituency and was the leader of Congress in the 17th Lok Sabha. However, he faced defeat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections against Trinamool Congress candidate Yusuf Pathan.
A faction within the state Congress has proposed Chowdhury as a candidate for chief minister. However, it remains unclear how many seats the party can win on its own. Chowdhury himself appears hesitant about this role without any official announcement, but he may contest the assembly elections, particularly from Murshidabad district. In the 2021 assembly elections, Congress and the Left alliance failed to win a single seat in the 294-member assembly, while their ally ISF secured only one seat.
Overall, the INDIA alliance—comprising Congress, CPI(M), DMK, Trinamool Congress, Aam Aadmi Party, Shiv Sena (UBT), and RJD among 28 opposition parties—has faced continuous setbacks since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It has suffered defeats in states like Maharashtra and Bihar, indicating a gradual weakening of the coalition.
However, it remains uncertain how much the BJP can capitalize on this political situation in West Bengal, as it lacks a strong regional leader and a fully united party organization.