Mumbai, February 6: Global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley has commenced coverage on Adani Energy Solutions (AESL), assigning an ‘Overweight’ rating with a target price of ₹1,133 per share.
The brokerage firm anticipates that AESL will benefit from the long-term expansion of power grids in India. It also forecasts a potential investment of ₹10 trillion in transmission projects over the next decade.
In its report, the brokerage highlighted the government’s support for smart metering, which includes subsidies aimed at increasing private sector participation.
Morgan Stanley emphasized AESL’s strong execution record, citing timely and cost-effective project delivery. The firm noted AESL’s integrated presence in transmission, distribution, and smart metering, establishing it as a comprehensive grid infrastructure player.
Morgan Stanley identified AESL as a leading private sector company in transmission and distribution, holding nearly 50% of the private sector transmission projects. The company serves approximately 3.3 million consumers through its distribution areas in Mumbai and Mundra SEZ, alongside a robust presence in smart metering.
The report estimates a 21% CAGR growth in EBITDA from FY 2025 to FY 2030, projecting EBITDA to reach around ₹2,600 crore by FY 2030. This growth is expected to stem from wins in transmission projects, regulated distribution capital expenditure, and the execution of the smart metering order book.
Transmission has been recognized as the strongest growth driver in the near to medium term, supported by an existing order book of approximately ₹7,800 crore expected by the third quarter of FY 2026.
Morgan Stanley estimates that AESL could secure about 20% of new TBCB projects, representing a potential opportunity of ₹20,000 crore annually.
The report also discusses opportunities arising from parallel licensing in the distribution sector, with AESL aiming to capture a 20% market share.
AESL’s regulated asset base is projected to grow at a CAGR of around 11%, supported by annual capital expenditure of approximately ₹1,600 crore.
In smart metering, AESL aims to achieve a market share of around 20%. Most of its order book of 24.6 million meters is expected to be completed by FY 2027, contributing approximately 9% to EBITDA in FY 2028, excluding non-IFRS adjustments.
Morgan Stanley has also covered Adani Ports and SEZ and Adani Power, both of which received positive ratings, reflecting the global brokerage firm’s confidence in their business models.