New Delhi, February 24: A report by SBI Research released on Tuesday indicates that India’s GDP growth rate for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025-26 could range between 8% and 8.1%. The report highlights that despite global challenges, the domestic economy has maintained a robust growth momentum.
High-frequency activity data suggests that economic activities remained strong during the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 (October-December 2025).
Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor at the State Bank of India, stated, “Rural consumption remains strong, supported by positive signals from both agricultural and non-agricultural activities. Urban consumption has also shown consistent improvement since the last festive season, aided by fiscal stimulus.”
According to initial estimates, the GDP growth rate for fiscal year 2026 is projected to be 7.4%, primarily driven by domestic demand.
India is in the process of revising its GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23, with the new series set to be released on February 27.
This revision aims to better reflect the current economic structure, including the growing role of digital commerce and services. The changes will incorporate better assessments of the informal sector and new data sources like GST, positioning India to emerge as the world’s fourth-largest economy.
The report notes, “Estimating the scope of revisions is challenging due to significant methodological changes and the release of new data series.”
The new methodology will include more detailed information such as GST records, e-vehicle registrations, and natural gas consumption.
The second advance estimate of GDP for fiscal year 2025-26, along with GDP figures for the past three fiscal years and quarterly GDP estimates based on the 2022-23 base year, will be released on February 27.
According to the latest economic survey, India’s potential GDP is estimated at around 7%, with projections for fiscal year 2027 suggesting growth between 6.8% and 7.2%.
Meanwhile, the global economy faces uncertainties. The global growth rate is expected to remain at 3.3% in 2025 and 2026, but geopolitical tensions, high debt levels, and structural changes such as digitization and decarbonization may lead to uneven growth across different regions.
–
